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Ordinarily, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year honor follows a simple script. It frequently functions as a type of mea culpa. Sorry we underestimated your squad in our preseason forecasts.

On paper, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the coach who oversaw the largest turnaround receives the award. However, it creates an yearly debate about expectations and whether we're actually rewarding excellent coaching or simply the greatest upset.

Yet the current competition is distinctly different. The pool of contenders is remarkably deep. It has been the season of comebacks. The NFL has been unpredictable, with recent division champions declining and recent also-rans rising together. During an typical year, Sean Payton leading the his team to the summit of the AFC would make him the overwhelming favorite. But in such a turbulent and entertaining season, he's facing multiple other exceptional coaches.

This is how the projected ballot should look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by signal-callers. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. If you solve a quarterback, you're well on your way home.

The Bears' head coach not only corrected Caleb Williams; he's freed him. Given a proper ecosystem, Williams has been afforded the chance to display his otherworldly talent. Since Week 9, the Chicago offense rank number four in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's consistent performance. Under Johnson, Williams has become more confident, less reckless, and has willingly surrendered to the scheme rather than improvising. It is an attack designed entirely in Johnson's image: a physical ground attack, a heavy dose of play-action passes and a creative passing attack that springs wide receiver receivers everywhere. Williams has thrived. And when openings haven't been there, he's been capable to conjure big plays out of broken plays.

The coach came to Chicago with a specific offensive vision. Virtually every bet – rebuilding the trenches, highlighting the pass-catchers, turning the QB into a timing-based thrower – has worked. This is rare for a first-year skipper. And it's even more uncommon yet for a coach who entered the building with the immense hype Johnson did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the hottest name on the head coaching carousel. However when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are no guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has lived up to the hype – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not just to be a scheme genius but the kind of culture builder that can breathe new life into an franchise.

During a typical year, Johnson would be the runaway favorite. But this isn't a normal campaign!

The area where his candidacy comes slightly unstuck is on the defensive side. The Bears currently sit 25th in defensive success rate. They are relying on takeaways, and takeaways are notoriously inconsistent. Coaches can stress ball disruption, but nobody can guarantee it. He is on the ballot because the offense is sustainable. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defense's heavy lifting. With a few bounces of the ball, the team would be several victories worse off. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the core is in place for long-term winning. But he comes up short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable situation to Johnson. He's another rookie leader who has orchestrated a rapid turnaround. During the stretch run of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete overall football of his professional life. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defensive unit that now ranks fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.

What's more notably, Coen has mastered the leadership aspects, which was not a guarantee following his early public introduction and some of his preseason moves.

Coen walked into Jacksonville with an exceptionally raw coaching staff. In contrast to Johnson, who packed themselves with the ideal staff cocktail of new ideas and veteran savvy, Coen trusted first-timers. From the leader on down to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with first-timers. That type of setup is intriguing in theory, but often fails in reality – with other teams are a warning – because everyone is learning a their job on the fly. Yet Coen has managed to bring everyone and everything into sync.

After an initial hot beginning, there was a risk that the campaign would go off the track. A midseason collapse had the team wobbling again. That's typically when coaches overcorrect. He did not. Rather, he streamlined the approach. Jacksonville stopped chasing explosive plays and started seeking consistent ones. Coen refocused the attack around his playmakers and the ground attack, and encouraged his QB to use his legs more.

The results are clear. The Jaguars have won multiple games consecutively and will be the conference's No 3 playoff seed. He gets the slightest knock in the rankings because he took over a skilled team, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Each Strong of the Year argument has a pivotal moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback decision.

Moving on from a incumbent, bringing in a different quarterback and partnering him with an innovative offensive coordinator could have derailed the campaign in October. Instead, it defined it. Through the middle point of the year, the acquisition was an MVP front-runner. He has regressed after that hot streak, slipping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the second half of the schedule, placing him only one spot ahead of other QBs.

Still